How Likely Are You To Live To 100?
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How much hope can we reasonably have of reaching 100?
Yesterday, we asked you: assuming a good Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL), how much longer do you hope to live?
We got the above-depicted, below-described, set of responses:
- A little over 38% of respondents hope to live another 11–20 years
- A little over 31% hope to live another 31–40 years
- A little over 7% will be content to make it to the next decade
- One (1) respondent hopes to live longer than an additional 100 years
This is interesting when we put it against our graph of how old our subscribers are:
…because it corresponds inversely, right down to the gap/dent in the 40s. And—we may hypothesize—that one person under 18 who hopes to live to 120, perhaps.
This suggests that optimism remains more or less constant, with just a few wobbles that would probably be un-wobbled with a larger sample size.
In other words: most of our education-minded, health-conscious subscriber-base hope to make it to the age of 90-something, while for the most part feeling that 100+ is overly optimistic.
Writer’s anecdote: once upon a time, I was at a longevity conference in Brussels, and a speaker did a similar survey, but by show of hands. He started low by asking “put your hands up if you want to live at least a few more minutes”. I did so, with an urgency that made him laugh, and say “Don’t worry; I don’t have a gun hidden up here!”
Conjecture aside… What does the science say about our optimism?
First of all, a quick recap…
To not give you the same information twice, let’s note we did an “aging mythbusting” piece already covering:
- Aging is inevitable: True or False?
- Aging is, and always will be, unstoppable: True or False?
- We can slow aging: True or False?
- It’s too early to worry about… / It’s too late to do anything about… True or False?
- We can halt aging: True or False?
- We can reverse aging: True or False?
- But those aren’t really being younger, we’ll still die when our time is up: True or False?
You can read the answers to all of those here:
Age & Aging: What Can (And Can’t) We Do About It?
Now, onwards…
It is unreasonable to expect to live past 100: True or False?
True or False, depending on your own circumstances.
First, external circumstances: the modal average person in Hong Kong is currently in their 50s and can expect to live into their late 80s, while the modal average person in Gaza is 14 and may not expect to make it to 15 right now.
To avoid extremes, let’s look at the US, where the modal average person is currently in their 30s and can expect to live into their 70s:
United States Mortality Database
Now, before that unduly worries our many readers already in their 70s…
Next, personal circumstances: not just your health, but your socioeconomic standing. And in the US, one of the biggest factors is the kind of health insurance one has:
SOA Research Institute | Life Expectancy Calculator 2021
You may note that the above source puts all groups into a life expectancy in the 80s—whereas the previous source gave 70s.
Why is this? It’s because the SOA, whose primary job is calculating life insurance risks, is working from a sample of people who have, or are applying for, life insurance. So it misses out many people who die younger without such.
New advances in medical technology are helping people to live longer: True or False?
True, assuming access to those. Our subscribers are mostly in North America, and have an economic position that affords good access to healthcare. But beware…
On the one hand:
The number of people who live past the age of 100 has been on the rise for decades
On the other hand:
The average life expectancy in the U.S. has been on the decline for three consecutive years
COVID is, of course, largely to blame for that, though:
❝The decline of 1.8 years in life expectancy was primarily due to increases in mortality from COVID-19 (61.2% of the negative contribution).
The decline in life expectancy would have been even greater if not for the offsetting effects of decreases in mortality due to cancer (43.1%)❞
Source: National Vital Statistics Reports
The US stats are applicable to Canada, the UK, and Australia: True or False?
False: it’s not quite so universal. Differences in healthcare systems will account for a lot, but there are other factors too:
- Life expectancy in Canada fell for the 3rd year in a row. What’s happening?
- UK life expectancy lagging behind rest of G7 except the US
- Australians are living longer but what does it take to reach 100 years old?
Here’s an interesting (UK-based) tool that calculates not just your life expectancy, but also gives the odds of living to various ages (e.g. this writer was given odds of living to 87, 96, 100).
Check yours here:
Office of National Statistics | Life Expectancy Calculator
To finish on a cheery note…
Data from Italian centenarians suggests a “mortality plateau”:
❝The risk of dying leveled off in people 105 and older, the team reports online today in Science.
That means a 106-year-old has the same probability of living to 107 as a 111-year-old does of living to 112.
Furthermore, when the researchers broke down the data by the subjects’ year of birth, they noticed that over time, more people appear to be reaching age 105.❞
Pop-sci source: Once you hit this age, aging appears to stop
Actual paper: The plateau of human mortality: demography of longevity pioneers
Take care!
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Scheduling Tips for Overrunning Tasks
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Your Questions, Our Answers!
Q: Often I schedule time for things, but the task takes longer than I think, or multiplies while I’m doing it, and then my schedule gets thrown out. Any ideas?
A: A relatable struggle! Happily, there are remedies:
- Does the task really absolutely need to be finished today? If not, just continue it in scheduled timeslots until it’s completed.
- Some tasks do indeed need to be finished today (hi, writer of a daily newsletter here!), so it can be useful to have an idea of how long things really take, in advance. While new tasks can catch us unawares, recurring or similar-to-previous tasks can be estimated based on how long they took previously. For this reason, we recommend doing a time audit every now and again, to see how you really use your time.
- A great resource that you should include in your schedule is a “spare” timeslot, ideally at least one per day. Call it a “buffer” or a “backup” or whatever (in my schedule it’s labelled “discretionary”), but the basic idea is that it’s a scheduled timeslot with nothing scheduled in it, and it works as an “overflow” catch-all.
Additionally:
- You can usually cut down the time it takes you to do tasks by setting “Deep Work” rules for yourself. For example: cut out distractions, single-task, work in for example 25-minute bursts with 5-minute breaks, etc
- You can also usually cut down the time it takes you to do tasks by making sure you’re prepared for them. Not just task-specific preparation, either! A clear head on, plenty of energy, the resources you’ll need (including refreshments!) to hand, etc can make a huge difference to efficiency.
See Also: Time Optimism and the Planning Fallacy
Do you have a question you’d like to see answered here? Hit reply or use the feedback widget at the bottom; we’d love to hear from you!
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In Praise of Slowness – by Carl Honoré
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This isn’t just about “taking the time to smell the roses” although yes, that too. Rather, it’s mostly about looking at what drives us to speed everything up in the first place, and correcting where appropriate.
If your ancestors had time to eat fruit and lie in the sun, then why, with all of modern technology now available, are you harangued 16+ hours a day by the pressures of universally synchronized timepieces?
Honoré places a lot of the blame squarely on the industrial revolution; whereas previously our work would be limited by craftsmen who take a year to complete something, or the pace of animals in a field, now humans had to keep up with the very machines that were supposed to serve us—and it’s only got worse from there.
This book takes a tour of many areas affected by this artificial “need for speed”, and how it harms not just our work-life balance, but also our eating habits, the medical attention we get, and even our love lives.
The prescription is deceptively simple, “slow down”. But Honoré dedicates the final three chapters of the book to the “how” of this, when of course there’s a lot the outside world will not accommodate—but where we can slow down, there’s good to be gained.
Bottom line: if you’ve ever felt that you could get all of your life into order if you could just pause the outside world for a week or two, this is the book for you.
Click here to check out In Praise of Slowness, and make time for what matters most!
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Dyslexia Test
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(and it’s mostly not about reading/writing!)
More than just shuffled letters
This video provides a self-test based on the Bangor Dyslexia Test (BDT). The BDT is 94% accurate in identifying dyslexia, and it includes 9 parts, with a mix of questions and tasks. Answering “yes” or struggling with tasks indicates possible dyslexia. Collecting 4+ indicators suggests dyslexia, but of course is not a replacement for official diagnosis.
It’s best to watch the video if you can, but here’s what to expect:
- Left-Right confusion: point your left hand to your right/left shoulder.
- Family history: any family members with dyslexia or struggles with reading/writing?
- Repeating numbers (order): repeat a given sequence of numbers in order.
- Letter confusion (e.g. b/d): do you confuse letters like “b” and “d” beyond age 8?
- Times tables: recite the 6, 7, and 8 times tables.
- Word manipulation: replace the letters in a word to create a new word, e.g. change “slide” (s ⇾ g) to “glide.”
- Repeating numbers (reversed): repeat a given sequence of numbers in reverse order.
- Months in reverse: recite the months of the year in reverse order.
- Subtraction: do you struggle with subtraction, e.g. 44-9 or 55-12?
Writer’s anecdote: I am not dyslexic, and/but I have an impressive level of dyscalculia (the purely numerical equivalent), to the point I’ll sometimes use a calculator to do single-digit calculations, and I am so bad at calculating ages or other differences between dates (I will have to count on my fingers or else run the severe risk of out-by-one errors). I have also been known to make mistakes counting down from 10, which really ruins dramatic tension.
In contrast, the left-right thing is interesting, because when I was first learning Arabic, I had no trouble reading/writing right-to-left, but I initially struggled so much to remember which way the “backspace” key would take me (in Arabic the backspace key backspaces to the right, despite still pointing to the left).
Anyway, for the test itself, enjoy:
Click Here If The Embedded Video Doesn’t Load Automatically!
Want to learn more?
You might also like to read:
Reading, Better (Reading As A Cognitive Exercise)
Take care!
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Testosterone, Tourette’s, and Tickly Throats
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It’s Q&A Day at 10almonds!
Have a question or a request? You can always hit “reply” to any of our emails, or use the feedback widget at the bottom!
In cases where we’ve already covered something, we might link to what we wrote before, but will always be happy to revisit any of our topics again in the future too—there’s always more to say!
As ever: if the question/request can be answered briefly, we’ll do it here in our Q&A Thursday edition. If not, we’ll make a main feature of it shortly afterwards!
So, no question/request too big or small
❝Could you do a series on mens health? Testosterone boosters. Libido? What works what doesnt? Also could you discuss prostate health and what supplements, meds, foods or protocols work to relieve symptoms of bph❞
We could indeed! We’ll be sure to write more, but while you’re waiting, you might like to read our main feature from a while back:
Too Much Or Too Little Testosterone?
…as it does include a lot about the use of a supplement that helps against Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia, with performance comparable to the most common drug prescribed for such.
And since (like that drug) it’s a 5α-reductase inhibitor (meaning it works by blocking the conversion of testosterone to DHT), this means it helps against prostate problems (and also, incidentally, male pattern hair loss) without reducing overall testosterone levels. In fact, because less testosterone will be converted to DHT, you’ll actually (all other things being equal) end up with slightly higher free testosterone levels.
❝My BMI is fine, but my waist is too big. What do I do about that? I am 5′ 5″ tall and 128 pounds and 72 years old.❞
It’s hard to say without knowing about your lifestyle (and hormones, for that matter)! But, extra weight around the middle in particular is often correlated with high levels of cortisol, so you might find this of benefit:
Lower Your Cortisol! (Here’s Why & How)
❝Is there anything special that might help someone with Tourette’s syndrome?❞
There are of course a lot of different manifestations of Tourette’s syndrome, and some people’s tics may be far more problematic to themselves and/or others, while some may be quite mild and just something to work around.
It’s an interesting topic for sure, so we’ll perhaps do a main feature (probably also covering the related-and-sometimes-overlapping OCD umbrella rather than making it hyperspecific to Tourette’s), but meanwhile, you might consider some of these options:
- Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS)
- Medications/ Pharmacology
- Comprehensive Behavioral Intervention for Tics (CBIT)
- Speech Therapies
❝Natural solutions for osteoarthritis. Eg. Rosehip tea, dandelion root tea. Any others??? What foods should I absolutely leave alone?❞
We’ll do a main feature on arthritis (in both its main forms) someday soon, but meanwhile, we recommend eating for good bone/joint health and against inflammation. To that end, you might like these main features we did on those topics:
- We Are Such Stuff As Fish Are Made Of (collagen for bone and joint health)
- The Bare-Bones Truth About Osteoporosis (eating for bone health generally)
- Keep Inflammation At Bay (dietary tips for minimizing inflammation—also, our all-time most popular article to date!)
Of these, probably the last one is the most critical, and also will have the speediest effects if implemented.
We turn the tables and ask you a question!
We’ll then talk about this tomorrow:
Don’t Forget…
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13 Things Mentally Strong Couples Don’t Do – by Dr. Amy Morin
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The saying “happy wife; happy life” indeed goes regardless of gender. One can have every other happiness, but if there’s relational trouble, it brings everything else down.
This book is not intended, however, only for people whose relationships are one couple’s therapy session away from divorce. Rather, it’s intended as a preventative. Because, in this as in every other aspect of health, prevention is better than cure!
It is the sign of a strong couple to be proactive about the health of the relationship, and work together to build and reinforce things along the way.
The style of this book is very accessible pop-science, but the author speaks from a strong professional background in social work, psychology, and psychotherapy, and it shows.
Bottom line: if you’d like to strengthen your relationship skills, this book gives 13 great ways to do that.
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How Useful Is Peppermint, Really?
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Peppermint For Digestion & Against Nausea
Peppermint is often enjoyed to aid digestion, and sometimes as a remedy for nausea, but what does the science say about these uses?
Peppermint and digestion
In short: it works! (but beware)
Most studies on peppermint and digestion, that have been conducted with humans, have been with regard to IBS, but its efficacy seems quite broad:
❝Peppermint oil is a natural product which affects physiology throughout the gastrointestinal tract, has been used successfully for several clinical disorders, and appears to have a good safety profile.❞
However, and this is important: if your digestive problem is GERD, then you may want to skip it:
❝The univariate logistic regression analysis showed the following risk factors: eating 1–2 meals per day (OR = 3.50, 95% CI: 1.75–6.98), everyday consumption of peppermint tea (OR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.14–3.50), and eating one, big meal in the evening instead of dinner and supper (OR = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.05–3.11).
The multivariate analysis confirmed that frequent peppermint tea consumption was a risk factor (OR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.08–3.70).❞
~ Dr. Jarosz & Dr. Taraszewska
Source: Risk factors for gastroesophageal reflux disease: the role of diet
Peppermint and nausea
Peppermint is also sometimes recommended as a nausea remedy. Does it work?
The answer is: maybe
The thing with nausea is it is a symptom with a lot of possible causes, so effectiveness of remedies may vary. But for example:
- Aromatherapy for treatment of postoperative nausea and vomiting ← no better than placebo
- The Effect of Combined Inhalation Aromatherapy with Lemon and Peppermint on Nausea and Vomiting of Pregnancy: A Double-Blind, Randomized Clinical Trial ← initially no better than placebo, then performed better on subsequent days
- The Effects of Peppermint Oil on Nausea, Vomiting and Retching in Cancer Patients Undergoing Chemotherapy: An Open Label Quasi-Randomized Controlled Pilot Study ← significant benefit immediately
Summary
Peppermint is useful against wide variety of gastrointestinal disorders, including IBS, but very definitely excluding GERD (in the case of GERD, it may make things worse)
Peppermint may help with nausea, depending on the cause.
Where can I get some?
Peppermint tea, and peppermint oil, you can probably find in your local supermarket (as well as fresh mint leaves, perhaps).
For the “heavy guns” that is peppermint essential oil, here’s an example product on Amazon for your convenience
Enjoy!
Don’t Forget…
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Learn to Age Gracefully
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