How To Triple Your Chances Of Getting The “Razorblade Throat” COVID Variant Or Long COVID

Well, that sounds like fun, doesn’t it? More formally known as variant NB.1.8.1, also called Nimbus (after the “NB” in its official name), comes under the Omicron variant umbrella, and is generally not nice.

Along with all the usual COVID symptoms, it is characterized by usually causing a razorblade sensation in the throat, along with gastrointestinal upset, including nausea and vomiting, which latter is probably the last thing you want if you have a “razorblade throat”.

Stats we know: in the US, it’s currently (at time of writing) the most popular variant, accounting for 43% of cases

Stats we don’t know: in the US, it’s currently (at time of writing) responsible for:

• a 21% increase in infections since the previous week
• a 40% increase in hospitalizations since the previous week
• a 36% decrease in deaths since the previous month

You may be wondering how we are giving numbers for what we said we don’t know. The answer is that COVID reporting is increasingly suffering from considerable reporting bias, that is to say, “it doesn’t count if we don’t count it”; low numbers look better for the government.

It’s the statistical equivalent of the old “if you need to use our accessible bathroom for disabled customers, please ask for the key at the desk upstairs” and then reporting that there was very low demand for it since almost nobody went upstairs to ask for the key.

Indeed, the above infection rate is generally being reported as, for example:

❝More of an uptick than a surge, the COVID case weekly positivity rate increased to 5.1% as of July 19, compared to 4.2% the week before, representing an increase of 0.3%, according to the CDC.❞

…and, that is mathematically very incorrect! A jump from 4.2 to 5.1 is not a 0.3% increase! It’s not even a 0.3 percentage points increase, it’s a 0.9 percentage points increase. Frankly, we don’t know where they got the 0.3% figure from, since the 0.9 percentage points increase can be arrived at easily by counting on one’s fingers.

As for the actual percentage increase:

• 4.2 is (of course) 100% of 4.2
• 5.1 is (grabbing a calculator) 121% of 4.2
• That is a 21% increase

…which is very different from the 0.3% increase claimed.

One important thing to understand before we get to tripling your chances of getting it

Remember when we said:

• a 40% increase in hospitalizations since the previous week
• a 36% decrease in deaths since the previous month

It’s easy to read that and think “ok, so, it’s less deadly, that’s at least one good thing”, and while there’s a logic to that… We would suggest that the death rate has gone down because the hospitalization rate has gone up, not because the variant is less deadly per se. Consider:

• You get a cough, it’s annoying, but whatever, you’re pretty sure it’s nothing. Then you can’t breathe, go to hospital, but it’s too late and you die.
• You get a cough, and nausea, and vomiting, and a razorblade throat. You go to hospital, get diagnosed, get treated, and you live.

So, the very unpleasant symptoms themselves are a protective factor, because it means you are more likely to go get treatment.

On which note…

How to triple your chances of getting it

Firstly we’ll note, the two (Omicron variant NB1.8.1, and long COVID) are linked, because higher survivorship rates mean higher long COVID rates (can’t get long COVID if you’re dead).

With that in mind, we’re going to talk about some long COVID research; just keep in mind that this new(ish) variant is more likely to produce long COVID than previous ones.

Researchers (Dr. Candace Feldman et al.) investigated social determinants of health that contribute both to infection rates and long COVID rates.

In few words: people facing financial hardship, food insecurity, limited healthcare access, low social/community support, crowded living conditions, or social disadvantages (e.g. being part of some socially marginalized demographic) are two to three times more likely to develop long COVID (it was already established that they were commensurately more likely to get infected in the first place).

This was arrived at by looking at 3,700 adults infected during the Omicron wave, tracking social risk factors at infection, and long COVID symptoms six months later. The significance of the data was high, and more social risk factors correlated with higher long COVID risk, even after adjusting for age, sex, race, ethnicity, disease severity, vaccination, and pregnancy status.

The researchers concluded that addressing social risk factors—like improving access to food, healthcare, and safe housing—may be essential to reducing long COVID burden.

You can read the paper here: Social Determinants of Health and Risk for Long COVID in the U.S. RECOVER-Adult Cohort

What this means for you: let us imagine that you, dear reader, are financially secure with good healthcare access, and generally not subject to most of the problems above.

You have to act like it!

So…

If you want to triple your chances of getting infected with the latest variant, if you want to triple your chances of getting long COVID, here’s how to do it:

• Do not get updated vaccinations, even if you have good healthcare access
• Spend time in crowded places, even if you can afford not to
• Eat unhealthily, even if you are not in food insecurity

It’s easy, but a lot of people don’t think about it!

Want to learn more?

Check out:

Why Some People Get Sick More (And How To Not Be One Of Them)

Take care!