How Likely Are You To Live To 100?

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How much hope can we reasonably have of reaching 100?

Yesterday, we asked you: assuming a good Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL), how much longer do you hope to live?

We got the above-depicted, below-described, set of responses:

  • A little over 38% of respondents hope to live another 11–20 years
  • A little over 31% hope to live another 31–40 years
  • A little over 7% will be content to make it to the next decade
  • One (1) respondent hopes to live longer than an additional 100 years

This is interesting when we put it against our graph of how old our subscribers are:

…because it corresponds inversely, right down to the gap/dent in the 40s. And—we may hypothesize—that one person under 18 who hopes to live to 120, perhaps.

This suggests that optimism remains more or less constant, with just a few wobbles that would probably be un-wobbled with a larger sample size.

In other words: most of our education-minded, health-conscious subscriber-base hope to make it to the age of 90-something, while for the most part feeling that 100+ is overly optimistic.

Writer’s anecdote: once upon a time, I was at a longevity conference in Brussels, and a speaker did a similar survey, but by show of hands. He started low by asking “put your hands up if you want to live at least a few more minutes”. I did so, with an urgency that made him laugh, and say “Don’t worry; I don’t have a gun hidden up here!”

Conjecture aside… What does the science say about our optimism?

First of all, a quick recap…

To not give you the same information twice, let’s note we did an “aging mythbusting” piece already covering:

  • Aging is inevitable: True or False?
  • Aging is, and always will be, unstoppable: True or False?
  • We can slow aging: True or False?
  • It’s too early to worry about… / It’s too late to do anything about… True or False?
  • We can halt aging: True or False?
  • We can reverse aging: True or False?
  • But those aren’t really being younger, we’ll still die when our time is up: True or False?

You can read the answers to all of those here:

Age & Aging: What Can (And Can’t) We Do About It?

Now, onwards…

It is unreasonable to expect to live past 100: True or False?

True or False, depending on your own circumstances.

First, external circumstances: the modal average person in Hong Kong is currently in their 50s and can expect to live into their late 80s, while the modal average person in Gaza is 14 and may not expect to make it to 15 right now.

To avoid extremes, let’s look at the US, where the modal average person is currently in their 30s and can expect to live into their 70s:

United States Mortality Database

Now, before that unduly worries our many readers already in their 70s…

Next, personal circumstances: not just your health, but your socioeconomic standing. And in the US, one of the biggest factors is the kind of health insurance one has:

SOA Research Institute | Life Expectancy Calculator 2021

You may note that the above source puts all groups into a life expectancy in the 80s—whereas the previous source gave 70s.

Why is this? It’s because the SOA, whose primary job is calculating life insurance risks, is working from a sample of people who have, or are applying for, life insurance. So it misses out many people who die younger without such.

New advances in medical technology are helping people to live longer: True or False?

True, assuming access to those. Our subscribers are mostly in North America, and have an economic position that affords good access to healthcare. But beware…

On the one hand:

The number of people who live past the age of 100 has been on the rise for decades

On the other hand:

The average life expectancy in the U.S. has been on the decline for three consecutive years

COVID is, of course, largely to blame for that, though:

❝The decline of 1.8 years in life expectancy was primarily due to increases in mortality from COVID-19 (61.2% of the negative contribution).

The decline in life expectancy would have been even greater if not for the offsetting effects of decreases in mortality due to cancer (43.1%)❞

Source: National Vital Statistics Reports

The US stats are applicable to Canada, the UK, and Australia: True or False?

False: it’s not quite so universal. Differences in healthcare systems will account for a lot, but there are other factors too:

Here’s an interesting (UK-based) tool that calculates not just your life expectancy, but also gives the odds of living to various ages (e.g. this writer was given odds of living to 87, 96, 100).

Check yours here:

Office of National Statistics | Life Expectancy Calculator

To finish on a cheery note…

Data from Italian centenarians suggests a “mortality plateau”:

❝The risk of dying leveled off in people 105 and older, the team reports online today in Science.

That means a 106-year-old has the same probability of living to 107 as a 111-year-old does of living to 112.

Furthermore, when the researchers broke down the data by the subjects’ year of birth, they noticed that over time, more people appear to be reaching age 105.❞

Pop-sci source: Once you hit this age, aging appears to stop

Actual paper: The plateau of human mortality: demography of longevity pioneers

Take care!

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  • Why are my muscles sore after exercise? Hint: it’s nothing to do with lactic acid

    10almonds is reader-supported. We may, at no cost to you, receive a portion of sales if you purchase a product through a link in this article.

    As many of us hit the gym or go for a run to recover from the silly season, you might notice a bit of extra muscle soreness.

    This is especially true if it has been a while between workouts.

    A common misunderstanding is that such soreness is due to lactic acid build-up in the muscles.

    Research, however, shows lactic acid has nothing to do with it. The truth is far more interesting, but also a bit more complex.

    It’s not lactic acid

    We’ve known for decades that lactic acid has nothing to do with muscle soreness after exercise.

    In fact, as one of us (Robert Andrew Robergs) has long argued, cells produce lactate, not lactic acid. This process actually opposes not causes the build-up of acid in the muscles and bloodstream.

    Unfortunately, historical inertia means people still use the term “lactic acid” in relation to exercise.

    Lactate doesn’t cause major problems for the muscles you use when you exercise. You’d probably be worse off without it due to other benefits to your working muscles.

    Lactate isn’t the reason you’re sore a few days after upping your weights or exercising after a long break.

    So, if it’s not lactic acid and it’s not lactate, what is causing all that muscle soreness?

    Muscle pain during and after exercise

    When you exercise, a lot of chemical reactions occur in your muscle cells. All these chemical reactions accumulate products and by-products which cause water to enter into the cells.

    That causes the pressure inside and between muscle cells to increase.

    This pressure, combined with the movement of molecules from the muscle cells can stimulate nerve endings and cause discomfort during exercise.

    The pain and discomfort you sometimes feel hours to days after an unfamiliar type or amount of exercise has a different list of causes.

    If you exercise beyond your usual level or routine, you can cause microscopic damage to your muscles and their connections to tendons.

    Such damage causes the release of ions and other molecules from the muscles, causing localised swelling and stimulation of nerve endings.

    This is sometimes known as “delayed onset muscle soreness” or DOMS.

    While the damage occurs during the exercise, the resulting response to the injury builds over the next one to two days (longer if the damage is severe). This can sometimes cause pain and difficulty with normal movement.

    The upshot

    Research is clear; the discomfort from delayed onset muscle soreness has nothing to do with lactate or lactic acid.

    The good news, though, is that your muscles adapt rapidly to the activity that would initially cause delayed onset muscle soreness.

    So, assuming you don’t wait too long (more than roughly two weeks) before being active again, the next time you do the same activity there will be much less damage and discomfort.

    If you have an exercise goal (such as doing a particular hike or completing a half-marathon), ensure it is realistic and that you can work up to it by training over several months.

    Such training will gradually build the muscle adaptations necessary to prevent delayed onset muscle soreness. And being less wrecked by exercise makes it more enjoyable and more easy to stick to a routine or habit.

    Finally, remove “lactic acid” from your exercise vocabulary. Its supposed role in muscle soreness is a myth that’s hung around far too long already.The Conversation

    Robert Andrew Robergs, Associate Professor – Exercise Physiology, Queensland University of Technology and Samuel L. Torrens, PhD Candidate, Queensland University of Technology

    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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  • Longevity Noodles

    10almonds is reader-supported. We may, at no cost to you, receive a portion of sales if you purchase a product through a link in this article.

    Noodles may put the “long” into “longevity”, but most of the longevity here comes from the ergothioneine in the mushrooms! The rest of the ingredients are great too though, including the noodles themselves—soba noodles are made from buckwheat, which is not a wheat, nor even a grass (it’s a flowering plant), and does not contain gluten*, but does count as one of your daily portions of grains!

    *unless mixed with wheat flour—which it shouldn’t be, but check labels, because companies sometimes cut it with wheat flour, which is cheaper, to increase their profit margin

    You will need

    • 1 cup (about 9 oz; usually 1 packet) soba noodles
    • 6 medium portobello mushrooms, sliced
    • 3 kale leaves, de-stemmed and chopped
    • 1 shallot, chopped, or ¼ cup chopped onion of any kind
    • 1 carrot, diced small
    • 1 cup peas
    • ½ bulb garlic, minced
    • 2 tbsp rice vinegar
    • 1 tsp grated fresh ginger
    • 1 tsp black pepper, coarse ground
    • 1 tsp red chili flakes
    • ½ tsp MSG or 1 tbsp low-sodium soy sauce
    • Avocado oil, for frying (alternatively: extra virgin olive oil or cold-pressed coconut oil are both perfectly good substitutions)

    Method

    (we suggest you read everything at least once before doing anything)

    1) Cook the soba noodles per the packet instructions, rinse, and set aside

    2) Heat a little oil in a skillet, add the shallot, and cook for about 2 minutes.

    3) Add the carrot and peas and cook for 3 more minutes.

    4) Add the mushrooms, kale, garlic, ginger, peppers, and vinegar, and cook for 1 more minute, stirring well.

    5) Add the noodles, as well as the MSG or low-sodium soy sauce, and cook for yet 1 more minute.

    6) Serve!

    Enjoy!

    Want to learn more?

    For those interested in some of the science of what we have going on today:

    Take care!

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  • Matcha is having a moment. What are the health benefits of this green tea drink?

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    Matcha has experienced a surge in popularity in recent months, leading to reports of global shortages and price increases.

    If you haven’t been caught up in the craze, matcha is a powdered version of green tea. On a cafe menu you might see a hot or iced matcha latte, or even a matcha-flavoured cake or pastry. A quick google brings up countless recipes incorporating matcha, both sweet and savoury.

    Retailers and cafe owners have suggested the main reasons for matcha’s popularity include its “instagrammable” looks and its purported health benefits.

    But what are the health benefits of matcha? Here’s what the evidence says.

    Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock

    First, what is matcha?

    Matcha is a finely ground powder of green tea leaves, which come from the plant Camellia sinensis. This is the same plant used to make green and black tea. However, the production process differentiates matcha from green and black tea.

    For matcha, the tea plant is grown in shade. Once the leaves are harvested, they’re steamed and dried and the stems are removed. Then the leaves are carefully ground at controlled temperatures to form the powder.

    The production process for green tea is simpler. The leaves are picked from the unshaded plants, heated and then dried. We then steep the dried leaves in hot water to get tea (whereas with matcha the whole leaf is consumed).

    With black tea, after the leaves are picked they’re exposed to air, which leads to oxidation. This makes the leaves black and gives the tea a different flavour.

    Hands holding a cup of matcha.
    In countries such as Japan, matcha is traditionally whisked with water and served in a stone bowl. Charlotte May/Pexels

    A source of phytonutrients

    Phytonutrients are chemical compounds found in plants which have a range of benefits for human health. Matcha contains several.

    Chlorophyll gives plants such as Camellia sinensis their green colour. There’s some evidence chlorophyll may have health benefits – including anti-inflammatory, anti-cancer and anti-obesity effects – due to its antioxidant properties. Antioxidants neutralise free radicals, which are unstable molecules that harm our cells.

    Theanine has been shown to improve sleep and reduce stress and anxiety. The only other known dietary source of theanine is mushrooms.

    Caffeine is a phytonutrient we know well. Aside from increasing alertness, caffeine has also demonstrated antioxidant effects and some protection against a range of chronic and neurodegenerative diseases. However, too much caffeine can have negative side effects.

    Interestingly, shading the plants while growing appears to change the nutritional composition of the leaf and may lead to higher levels of these phytonutrients in matcha compared to green tea.

    Another compound worth mentioning is called catechins, of which there are several different types. Matcha powder similarly has more catechins than green tea. They are strong antioxidants, which have been shown to have protective effects against bacteria, viruses, allergies, inflammation and cancer. Catechins are also found in apples, blueberries and strawberries.

    What are the actual health benefits?

    So we know matcha contains a variety of phytonutrients, but does this translate to noticeable health benefits?

    A review published in 2023 identified only five experimental studies that have given matcha to people. These studies gave participants about 2–4g of matcha per day (equivalent to 1–2 teaspoons of matcha powder), compared to a placebo, as either a capsule, in tea or in foods. Matcha decreased stress and anxiety, and improved memory and cognitive function. There was no effect on mood.

    A more recent study showed 2g of matcha in older people aged 60 to 85 improved sleep quality. However, in younger people aged 27 to 64 in another study, matcha had little effect on sleep.

    A study in people with obesity found no difference in the weight loss observed between the matcha group and the control group. This study did not randomise participants, and people knew which group they had been placed in.

    It could be hypothesised that given you consume all of the leaf, and given levels of some phytonutrients may be higher due to the growing conditions, matcha may have more nutritional benefits than green tea. But to my knowledge there has been no direct comparison of health outcomes from green tea compared to matcha.

    A matcha latte in a black cup on a brown table.
    Matcha has grown in popularity – but evidence for its health benefits is still limited. Usanee/Shutterstock

    There’s lots of evidence for green tea

    While to date a limited number of studies have looked at matcha, and none compared matcha and green tea, there’s quite a bit of research on the health benefits of drinking green tea.

    A systematic review of 21 studies on green tea has shown similar benefits to matcha for improvements in memory, plus evidence for mood improvement.

    There’s also evidence green tea provides other health benefits. Systematic reviews have shown green tea leads to weight loss in people with obesity, lower levels of certain types of cholesterol, and reduced blood pressure. Green tea may also lower the risk of certain types of cancer.

    So, if you can’t get your hands on matcha at the moment, drinking green tea may be a good way to get your caffeine hit.

    Although the evidence on green tea provides us with some hints about the health benefits of matcha, we can’t be certain they would be the same. Nonetheless, if your local coffee shop has a good supply of matcha, there’s nothing to suggest you shouldn’t keep enjoying matcha drinks.

    However, it may be best to leave the matcha croissant or cronut for special occasions. When matcha is added to foods with high levels of added sugar, salt and saturated fat, any health benefits that could be attributed to the matcha may be negated.

    Evangeline Mantzioris, Program Director of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Accredited Practising Dietitian, University of South Australia

    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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    10almonds is reader-supported. We may, at no cost to you, receive a portion of sales if you purchase a product through a link in this article.

    We’ve reviewed intermittent fasting books before, so what makes this one different?

    The title “Fast. Feast. Repeat.” doesn’t give much away; after all, we already know that that’s what intermittent fasting is.

    After taking the reader though the basics of how intermittent fasting works and what it does for the body, much of the rest of the book is given over to improvements.

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    Instead, Dr. Stephens gives us ways to keep confusing our metabolism (in a good way) if, for example, we had a weight loss goal we haven’t met yet.

    Best of all, this comes without actually having to eat less.

    Bottom line: if you want to be in good physical health, and/but also believe that life is for living and you enjoy eating food, then this book can resolve that age-old dilemma!

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  • When You “Can’t Complain”

    10almonds is reader-supported. We may, at no cost to you, receive a portion of sales if you purchase a product through a link in this article.

    A Bone To Pick… Up And Then Put Back Where We Found It

    In today’s Psychology Sunday feature, we’re going to be flipping the narrative on gratitude, by tackling it from the other end.

    We have, by the way, written previously about gratitude, and what mistakes to avoid, in one of our pieces on positive psychology:

    How To Get Your Brain On A More Positive Track (Without Toxic Positivity)

    “Can’t complain”

    Your mission, should you choose to accept it (and come on, who doesn’t like a challenge?) is to go 21 days without complaining (to anyone, including yourself, about anything). If you break your streak, that’s ok, just start again!

    Why?

    Complaining is (unsurprisingly) inversely correlated with happiness, in a self-perpetuating cycle:

    Pet Peeves and Happiness: How Do Happy People Complain?

    And if a stronger motivation is required, there’s a considerable inverse correlation between all-cause happiness and all-cause mortality, even when potential confounding factors (e.g., chronic health conditions, socioeconomic status, etc) are controlled for, and especially as we get older:

    Investing in Happiness: The Gerontological Perspective

    How?

    You may have already formulated some objections by this point, for example:

    • Am I supposed to tell my doctor/therapist “I’m fine thanks; how are you?”
    • Some things are worthy of complaint; should I be silent?

    But both of these issues (communication, and righteousness) have answers:

    On communication:

    There is a difference between complaining, and giving the necessary information in answer to a question—or even volunteering such information.

    For example, when our site went down yesterday, some of you wrote to us to let us know the links weren’t working. There is a substantive difference (semantic, ontological, and teleological) between:

    • The content was great but the links in “you may have missed” did not work.❞ ← a genuine piece of feedback we received (thank you!)
    • Wasted my time, couldn’t read your articles! Unsubscribing, and I hope your socks get wet tomorrow! ← nobody said this; our subscribers are lovely (thank you)
    • Note that the former wasn’t a complaint, it was genuinely helpful feedback, without which we might not have noticed the problem and fixed it.
    • The latter was a complaint, and also (like many complaints) didn’t even address the actual problem usefully.

    What makes it a complaint or not is not the information conveyed, but the tone and intention. So for example:

    “You’ve only done half the job I asked you to!” → “Thank you for doing the first half of this job, could you please do the other half now?”

    Writer’s anecdote: my washing machine needs a part replaced; the part was ordered two weeks ago and I was told it would take a week to arrive. It’s been two weeks, so tomorrow I will not complain, but I will politely ask whether they have any information about the delay, and a new estimated time of arrival. Because you know what? Whatever the delay is, complaining won’t make it arrive last week!

    On righteousness:

    Indeed, some things are very worthy of complaint. But are you able to effect a solution by complaining? If not, then it’s just hot air. And venting isn’t without its own merits (we touched on the benefits of emotional catharsis recently), but that should be a mindful choice when you choose to do that, not a matter of reactivity.

    Complaining is a subset of criticizing, and criticizing can be done without the feeling and intent of complaining. However, it too should definitely be measured and considered, responsive, not reactive. This itself could be the topic for another main feature, but for now, here’s a Psychology Today article that at least explains the distinction in more words than we have room for here:

    React vs Respond: What’s the difference?

    This, by the way, also goes the same for engaging in social and political discourse. It’s easy to get angry and reactive, but it’s good to take a moment to pick your battles, and by all means fight for what you believe in, and/but also do so responsively rather than reactively.

    Not only will your health thank you, but you’re also more likely to “win friends and influence people” and all that!

    What gets measured, gets done

    Find a way of tracking your streak. There are apps for that, like this one, or you could find a low-tech method you prefer.

    Bonus tip: if you do mess up and complain, and you realize as you’re doing it, take a moment to take a breath and correct yourself in the moment.

    Take care!

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  • Never Enough – by Dr. Judith Grisel

    10almonds is reader-supported. We may, at no cost to you, receive a portion of sales if you purchase a product through a link in this article.

    We’ve reviewed books about addiction before—specifically about alcohol, at least. This one’s more general in that it covers different addictions.

    On the other hand, it’s also more specific, in that it covers them from the author’s field: neuroscience.

    …and experience too. The author had a plethora of addictions (the serious kind), got sober, and then undertook to study neuroscience. Her hope was to help others avoid, or escape from the same as‚ what she went through.

    Dr. Grisel (as she now is) takes a methodical approach in this book. She works her way through the addictive mechanisms of a broad selection of common drugs, explaining each.

    The focus here is on neutral explanations, rather than the propagandizing scaremongering that failed at least one generation. Why each drug is alluring, what it really does do—and the neurological price it exacts, down to the molecular level.

    She also covers risk factors for addiction; genetic, epigenetic, and environmental. There’s no “if you were stronger”, or “these people made bad choices”, so much as… Many addicts were, in effect, sabotaged from before birth.

    That doesn’t mean that to become addicted or not is just fate, but it does mean… There but for the grace of factors completely outside of our control go we.

    Why is this useful to us, be we a reader without any meaningful addiction (we’re not counting coffee etc here)? Well, as this book illustrates and explains, many of us could be one (more) mishap away from a crippling addiction and not know it. Forewarned is forearmed.

    Bottom line: almost all of us are, have been, or will be touched by addiction in some way. Either directly, or a loved one, or a loved one’s loved one, or perhaps a parent who gave us an epigenetic misfortune. This book gives understanding that can help.

    Click here to check out “Never Enough” on Amazon today, and learn more about this important health issue!

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