The Two-Second Advantage – by Vivek Ranadive and Kevin Maney

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The titular “two-second advantage” can in some cases be literal (imagine you got a two-second head-start in a boxing match!), in other cases can refer to being just a little ahead of things in a way that can confer a great advantage, often cumulatively—as anyone who’s played Monopoly can certainly attest.

Vivek Ranadivé and Kevin Maney give us lots of examples from business, sports, politics, economics, and more, in a way that seeks to cultivate a habit of asking the right questions in order to anticipate the future and not just be ahead of the competition—some areas of life don’t have competition for most people, like health, for example—but to generally have things “in hand”.

When it comes to personal finances, health, personal projects, and the like, those tiny initial advantages that lead to incremental further improvements, can be the difference between continually (and frantically) playing catch-up, or making the jump past breaking even to going from strength to strength.

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Recommended

  • Nudge – by Richard Thaler & Cass Sunstein
  • Why are people on TikTok talking about going for a ‘fart walk’? A gastroenterologist weighs in
    The fart walk: a viral trend with health perks. Simple post-dinner strolls may ease bloating, reduce constipation, and control blood sugar.

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  • The Case of the Armadillo: Is It Spreading Leprosy in Florida?

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    GAINESVILLE, Fla. — In an open-air barn at the edge of the University of Florida, veterinarian Juan Campos Krauer examines a dead armadillo’s footpads and ears for signs of infection.

    Its claws are curled tight and covered in blood. Campos Krauer thinks it was struck in the head while crossing a nearby road.

    He then runs a scalpel down its underside. He removes all the important organs: heart, liver, kidneys. Once the specimens are bottled up, they’re destined for an ultra-cold freezer in his lab at the college.

    Campos Krauer plans to test the armadillo for leprosy, an ancient illness also known as Hansen’s disease that can lead to nerve damage and disfigurement in humans. He and other scientists are trying to solve a medical mystery: why Central Florida has become a hot spot for the age-old bacteria that cause it.

    Leprosy remains rare in the United States. But Florida, which often reports the most cases of any state, has seen an uptick in patients. The epicenter is east of Orlando. Brevard County reported a staggering 13% of the nation’s 159 leprosy cases in 2020, according to a Tampa Bay Times analysis of state and federal data.

    Many questions about the phenomenon remain unanswered. But leprosy experts believe armadillos play a role in spreading the illness to people. To better understand who’s at risk and to prevent infections, about 10 scientists teamed up last year to investigate. The group includes researchers from the University of Florida, Colorado State University, and Emory University in Atlanta.

    “How this transmission is happening, we really don’t know,” said Ramanuj Lahiri, chief of the laboratory research branch for the National Hansen’s Disease Program, which studies the bacteria involved and cares for leprosy patients across the country.

    ‘Nothing Was Adding Up’

    Leprosy is believed to be the oldest human infection in history. It probably has been sickening people for at least 100,000 years. The disease is highly stigmatized — in the Bible, it was described as a punishment for sin. In more modern times, patients were isolated in “colonies” around the world, including in Hawaii and Louisiana.

    In mild cases, the slow-growing bacteria cause a few lesions. If left untreated, they can paralyze the hands and feet.

    But it’s actually difficult to fall ill with leprosy, as the infection isn’t very contagious. Antibiotics can cure the ailment in a year or two. They’re available for free through the federal government and the World Health Organization, which launched a campaign in the 1990s to eliminate leprosy as a public health problem.

    In 2000, reported U.S. cases dropped to their lowest point in decades with 77 infections. But they later increased, averaging about 180 per year from 2011 to 2020, according to data from the National Hansen’s Disease Program.

    During that time, a curious trend emerged in Florida.

    In the first decade of the 21st century, the state logged 67 cases. Miami-Dade County noted 20 infections — the most of any Florida county. The vast majority of its cases were acquired outside the U.S., according to a Times analysis of Florida Department of Health data.

    But over the next 10 years, recorded cases in the state more than doubled to 176 as Brevard County took center stage.

    The county, whose population is about a fifth the size of Miami-Dade’s, logged 85 infections during that time — by far the most of any county in the state and nearly half of all Florida cases. In the previous decade, Brevard noted just five cases.

    Remarkably, at least a quarter of Brevard’s infections were acquired within the state, not while the individuals were abroad. India, Brazil, and Indonesia diagnose more leprosy cases than anywhere, reporting over 135,000 infections combined in 2022 alone. People were getting sick even though they hadn’t traveled to such areas or been in close contact with existing leprosy patients, said Barry Inman, a former epidemiologist at the Brevard health department who investigated the cases and retired in 2021.

    “Nothing was adding up,” Inman said.

    A few patients recalled touching armadillos, which are known to carry the bacteria. But most didn’t, he said. Many spent a lot of time outdoors, including lawn workers and avid gardeners. The cases were usually mild.

    It was difficult to nail down where people got the illness, he added. Because the bacteria grow so slowly, it can take anywhere from nine months to 20 years for symptoms to begin.

    Amoeba or Insect Culprits?

    Heightened awareness of leprosy could play a role in Brevard’s groundswell of cases.

    Doctors must report leprosy to the health department. Yet Inman said many in the county didn’t know that, so he tried to educate them after noticing cases in the late 2000s.

    But that’s not the sole factor at play, Inman said.

    “I don’t think there’s any doubt in my mind that something new is going on,” he said.

    Other parts of Central Florida have also recorded more infections. From 2011 to 2020, Polk County logged 12 cases, tripling its numbers compared with the previous 10 years. Volusia County noted 10 cases. It reported none the prior decade.

    Scientists are honing in on armadillos. They suspect the burrowing critters may indirectly cause infections through soil contamination.

    Armadillos, which are protected by hard shells, serve as good hosts for the bacteria, which don’t like heat and can thrive in the animals whose body temperatures range from a cool 86-95 degrees.

    Colonists probably brought the disease to the New World hundreds of years ago, and somehow armadillos became infected, said Lahiri, the National Hansen’s Disease Program scientist. The nocturnal mammals can develop lesions from the illness just as humans can. More than 1 million armadillos occupy Florida, estimated Campos Krauer, an assistant professor in the University of Florida’s Department of Large Animal Clinical Sciences.

    How many carry leprosy is unclear. A study published in 2015 of more than 600 armadillos in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and Mississippi found that about 16% showed evidence of infection. Public health experts believe leprosy was previously confined to armadillos west of the Mississippi River, then spread east.

    Handling the critters is a known hazard. Lab research shows that single-cell amoebas, which live in soil, can also carry the bacteria.

    Armadillos love to dig up and eat earthworms, frustrating homeowners whose yards they damage. The animals may shed the bacteria while hunting for food, passing it to amoebas, which could later infect people.

    Leprosy experts also wonder if insects help spread the disease. Blood-sucking ticks might be a culprit, lab research shows.

    “Some people who are infected have little to no exposure to the armadillo,” said Norman Beatty, an assistant professor of medicine at the University of Florida. “There is likely another source of transmission in the environment.”

    Campos Krauer, who’s been searching Gainesville streets for armadillo roadkill, wants to gather infected animals and let them decompose in a fenced-off area, allowing the remains to soak into a tray of soil while flies lay eggs. He hopes to test the dirt and larvae to see if they pick up the bacteria.

    Adding to the intrigue is a leprosy strain found only in Florida, according to scientists.

    In the 2015 study, researchers discovered that seven armadillos from the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge, which is mostly in Brevard but crosses into Volusia, carried a previously unseen version of the pathogen.

    Ten patients in the region were stricken with it, too. At the genetic level, the strain is similar to another type found in U.S. armadillos, said Charlotte Avanzi, a Colorado State University researcher who specializes in leprosy.

    It’s unknown if the strain causes more severe disease, Lahiri said.

    Reducing Risk

    The public should not panic about leprosy, nor should people race to euthanize armadillos, researchers warn.

    Scientists estimate that over 95% of the global human population has a natural ability to ward off the disease. They believe months of exposure to respiratory droplets is needed for person-to-person transmission to occur.

    But when infections do happen, they can be devastating.

    “If we better understand it,” Campos Krauer said, “the better we can learn to live with it and reduce the risk.”

    The new research may also provide insight for other Southern states. Armadillos, which don’t hibernate, have been moving north, Campos Krauer said, reaching areas like Indiana and Virginia. They could go farther due to climate change.

    People concerned about leprosy can take simple precautions, medical experts say. Those working in dirt should wear gloves and wash their hands afterward. Raising garden beds or surrounding them with a fence may limit the chances of soil contamination. If digging up an armadillo burrow, consider wearing a face mask, Campos Krauer said.

    Don’t play with or eat the animals, added John Spencer, a scientist at Colorado State University who studies leprosy transmission in Brazil. They’re legal to hunt year-round in Florida without a license.

    Campos Krauer’s team has so far examined 16 dead armadillos found on Gainesville area roads, more than 100 miles from the state’s leprosy epicenter, trying to get a preliminary idea of how many carry the bacteria.

    None has tested positive yet.

    This article was produced through a partnership between KFF Health News and the Tampa Bay Times.

    KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about KFF.

    Subscribe to KFF Health News’ free Morning Briefing.

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  • HRT & Your Heart

    10almonds is reader-supported. We may, at no cost to you, receive a portion of sales if you purchase a product through a link in this article.

    It’s Q&A Day at 10almonds!

    Have a question or a request? We love to hear from you!

    In cases where we’ve already covered something, we might link to what we wrote before, but will always be happy to revisit any of our topics again in the future too—there’s always more to say!

    As ever: if the question/request can be answered briefly, we’ll do it here in our Q&A Thursday edition. If not, we’ll make a main feature of it shortly afterwards!

    So, no question/request too big or small

    ❝So the reason that someone on estrogen has a slightly higher chance of a heart attack is…what? Is it just because there’s a higher body fat?❞

    There shouldn’t be higher chance of a heart attack once everything’s been taken into account, and indeed estrogen has some cardioprotective benefits, along with competing properties, e.g:

    ❝The cardiovascular effects of estrogen require a careful balancing act between possible advantages, such as enhanced lipid profiles and vascular function, and possible concerns, like increased thrombotic risk.

    Estrogen has cardioprotective properties in premenopausal women❞

    ~ Dr. Ayesha Javed et al.

    Source: The Relationship Between Myocardial Infarction and Estrogen Use: A Literature Review

    The risks and benefits of HRT are numerous, and/but a lot of the risks are associated only with animal-derived HRT rather bioidentitical, so you might want to check out our previous article:

    HRT: A Tale Of Two Approaches (Bioidentical vs Animal)

    Would you like this section to be bigger? If so, send us more questions!

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  • Gut Feelings – by Dr Will Cole

    10almonds is reader-supported. We may, at no cost to you, receive a portion of sales if you purchase a product through a link in this article.

    More and more, science is uncovering links between our gut health and the rest of our health—including our mental health! We all know “get some fiber and consider probiotics”, but what else is there that we can do?

    Quite a lot, actually. And part of it, which Dr. Cole also explores, is the fact that the gut-brain highway is a two-way street!

    The book looks a lot especially at the particular relationship between shame and eating. The shame need not initially be about eating, though it can certainly end up that way too. But any kind of shame—be it relating to one’s body, work, relationship, or anything else, can not only have a direct effect on the gut, but indirect too:

    Once our “eating our feelings” instinct kicks in, things can spiral from there, after all.

    So, Dr. Cole walks us through tackling this from both sides—nutrition and psychology. With chapters full of tips and tricks, plus a 21-day plan (not a diet plan, a habit integration plan), this book hits shame (and inflammation, incidentally) hard and leads us into much healthier habits and cycles.

    In short: if you’d like to have a better relationship with your food, improve your gut health, and/or reduce inflammation, this is definitely a book for you!

    Click here to check out Gut Feelings on Amazon today!

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Related Posts

  • Nudge – by Richard Thaler & Cass Sunstein
  • A Deeper Dive Into Seaweed

    10almonds is reader-supported. We may, at no cost to you, receive a portion of sales if you purchase a product through a link in this article.

    We wrote briefly about nori yesterday, when we compared it with well-known superfood spirulina. In nutritional terms, it blew spirulina out of the water:

    Spirulina vs Nori – Which Is Healthier?

    We also previously touched on it here:

    21% Stronger Bones in a Year at 62? Yes, It’s Possible (No Calcium Supplements Needed!) ← nori was an important part of the diet enjoyed here

    What is nori?

    Nori is a seaweed, but that can mean lots of different things. In nori’s case, it’s an aggregate of several kinds of red algae that clump together in the sea.

    When dried and/or toasted (which processes improve* the nutritional value rather than diminishing it, by the way), it looks dark green or dark purple to black in color.

    *Effects of pan- and air fryer-roasting on volatile and umami compounds and antioxidant activity of dried laver (Porphyra dentata) ← this is nori, by another name

    If you enjoy sushi, nori is the dark flat sheety stuff that other things are often wrapped in.

    The plant that has animal nutrients

    As established in the head-to-head we linked above, nori is a nutritional powerhouse. But not only is it very full of the perhaps-expected vitamins and minerals, it also contains:

    Omega-3 fatty acids, including EPA, which plants do not normally have (plants usually have just ALA, which the body can convert into other forms including EPA). While ALA is versatile, having EPA in food saves the body the job of converting it, and thus makes it more readily bioavailable. For more on the benefits of this, see:

    What Omega-3 Fatty Acids Really Do For Us

    Iodine, which land plants don’t generally have, but seaweed usually does. However, nori contains less iodine than other kinds of seaweed, which is (counterintuitively) good, since other kinds of seaweed often contain megadoses that go too far the other way and can cause different health problems.

    • Recommended daily amount of iodine: 150µg ← note that’s micrograms, not milligrams
    • One 10g serving of dried nori contains: 232µg ← this is good
    • Tolerable daily upper limit of iodine: 1,100µg (i.e: 1.1mg)
    • One 10g serving of dried kombu (kelp) contains: 13,270µg (i.e: 13.3mg) ← this is far too much; not good!

    So: a portion of nori puts us into the healthiest spot of the range, whereas a portion of another example seaweed would put us nearly 13x over the tolerable upper limit.

    For why this matters, see:

    As you might note from the mentions of both hypo- and hyperthyroidism, (which are exacerbated by too little and too much iodine, respectively) hitting the iodine sweet spot is important, and nori is a great way to do that.

    Vitamin B12, again not usually found in plants (most vegans supplement, often with nutritional yeast, which is technically neither an animal nor a plant). However, nori scores even higher:

    Vitamin B12-Containing Plant Food Sources for Vegetarians

    Beyond nutrients

    Nori is also one of the few foods that actually live up the principle of a “detox diet”, as it can help remove toxins such as dioxins:

    Detox diets for toxin elimination and weight management: a critical review of the evidence

    It’s also been…

    ❝revealed to have anti-aging, anti-cancer, anti-coagulant, anti-inflammatory, anti-microbial, anti-oxidant, anti-diabetic, anti-Alzheimer and anti-tuberculose activities.❞

    ~ Dr. Şükran Çakir Arica et al.

    Read: A study on the rich compounds and potential benefits of algae: A review

    (for this to make sense you will need to remember that nori is, as we mentioned, an aggregate of diverse red algae species; in that paper, you can scroll down to Table 1, and see which species has which qualities. Anything whose name starts with “Porphyra” or “Porphridum” is found in nori)

    Is it safe?

    Usually! There are two potential safety issues:

    1. Seaweed can, while it’s busy absorbing valuable minerals from the sea, also absorb heavy metals if there are such pollutants in the region. For this reason, it is good to buy a product with trusted certifications, such that it will have been tested for such along the way.
    2. Seaweed can, while it’s busy absorbing things plants don’t usually have from the sea, also absorb allergens from almost-equally-small crustaceans. So if you have a seafood allergy, seaweed could potentially trigger that.

    Want to try some?

    We don’t sell it, but here for your convenience is an example product on Amazon 😎

    Enjoy!

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  • Decoding Hormone Balancing in Ads

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    It’s Q&A Time!

    This is the bit whereby each week, we respond to subscriber questions/requests/etc

    Have something you’d like to ask us, or ask us to look into? Hit reply to any of our emails, or use the feedback widget at the bottom, and a Real Human™ will be glad to read it!

    Q: As to specific health topics, I would love to see someone address all these Instagram ads targeted to women that claim “You only need to ‘balance your hormones’ to lose weight, get ripped, etc.” What does this mean? Which hormones are they all talking about? They all seem to be selling a workout program and/or supplements or something similar, as they are ads, after all. Is there any science behind this stuff or is it mostly hot air, as I suspect?

    Thank you for asking this, as your question prompted yesterday’s main feature, What Does “Balancing Your Hormones” Even Mean?

    That’s a great suggestion also about addressing ads (and goes for health-related things in general, not just hormonal stuff) and examining their claims, what they mean, how they work (if they work!), and what’s “technically true but may be misleading* cause confusion”

    *We don’t want companies to sue us, of course.

    Only, we’re going to need your help for this one, subscribers!

    See, here at 10almonds we practice what we preach. We limit screen time, we focus on our work when working, and simply put, we don’t see as many ads as our thousands of subscribers do. Also, ads tend to be targeted to the individual, and often vary from country to country, so chances are good that we’re not seeing the same ads that you’re seeing.

    So, how about we pull together as a bit of a 10almonds community project?

    • Step 1: add our email address to your contacts list, if you haven’t already
    • Step 2: When you see an ad you’re curious about, select “share” (there is usually an option to share ads, but if not, feel free to screenshot or such)
    • Step 3: Send the ad to us by email

    We’ll do the rest! Whenever we have enough ads to review, we’ll do a special on the topic.

    We will categorically not be able to do this without you, so please do join in—Many thanks in advance!

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  • Addiction Myths That Are Hard To Quit

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    Which Addiction-Quitting Methods Work Best?

    In Tuesday’s newsletter we asked you what, in your opinion, is the best way to cure an addiction. We got the above-depicted, below-described, interesting distribution of responses:

    • About 29% said: “Addiction cannot be cured; once an addict, always an addict”
    • About 26% said “Cold turkey (stop 100% and don’t look back)”
    • About 17% said “Gradually reduce usage over an extended period of time”
    • About 11% said “A healthier, but somewhat like-for-like, substitution”
    • About 9% said “Therapy (whether mainstream, like CBT, or alternative, like hypnosis)”
    • About 6% said “Peer support programs and/or community efforts (e.g. church etc)”
    • About 3% said “Another method (mention it in the comment field)” and then did not mention it in the comment field

    So what does the science say?

    Addiction cannot be cured; once an addict, always an addict: True or False?

    False, which some of the people who voted for it seemed to know, as some went on to add in the comment field what they thought was the best way to overcome the addiction.

    The widespread belief that “once an addict, always an addict” is a “popular truism” in the same sense as “once a cheater, always a cheater”. It’s an observation of behavioral probability phrased as a strong generalization, but it’s not actually any kind of special unbreakable law of the universe.

    And, certainly the notion that one cannot be cured keeps membership in many 12-step programs and similar going—because if you’re never cured, then you need to stick around.

    However…

    What is the definition of addiction?

    Addiction is a treatable, chronic medical disease involving complex interactions among brain circuits, genetics, the environment, and an individual’s life experiences. People with addiction use substances or engage in behaviors that become compulsive and often continue despite harmful consequences.

    Prevention efforts and treatment approaches for addiction are generally as successful as those for other chronic diseases.❞

    ~ American Society of Addiction Medicine

    Or if we want peer-reviewed source science, rather than appeal to mere authority as above, then:

    ❝What is drug addiction?

    Addiction is defined as a chronic, relapsing disorder characterized by compulsive drug seeking and use despite adverse consequences. It is considered a brain disorder, because it involves functional changes to brain circuits involved in reward, stress, and self-control. Those changes may last a long time after a person has stopped taking drugs.

    Addiction is a lot like other diseases, such as heart disease. Both disrupt the normal, healthy functioning of an organ in the body, both have serious harmful effects, and both are, in many cases, preventable and treatable.❞

    ~ Nora D. Volkow (Director, National Institute of Drug Abuse)

    Read more: Drugs, Brains, and Behavior: The Science of Addiction

    In short: part of the definition of addiction is the continued use; if the effects of the substance are no longer active in your physiology, and you are no longer using, then you are not addicted.

    Just because you would probably become addicted again if you used again does not make you addicted when neither the substance nor its after-effects are remaining in your body. Otherwise, we could define all people as addicted to all things based on “well if they use in the future they will probably become addicted”.

    This means: the effects of addiction can and often will last for long after cessation of use, but ultimately, addiction can be treated and cured.

    (yes, you should still abstain from the thing to which you were formerly addicted though, or you indeed most probably will become addicted again)

    Cold turkey is best: True or False?

    True if and only if certain conditions are met, and then only for certain addictions. For all other situations… False.

    To decide whether cold turkey is a safe approach (before even considering “effective”), the first thing to check is how dangerous the withdrawal symptoms are. In some cases (e.g. alcohol, cocaine, heroin, and others), the withdrawal symptoms can kill.

    That doesn’t mean they will kill, so knowing (or being!) someone who quit this way does not refute this science by counterexample. The mortality rates that we saw while researching varied from 8% to 37%, so most people did not die, but do you really want (yourself or a loved one) to play those odds unnecessarily?

    See also: Detoxification and Substance Abuse Treatment

    Even in those cases where it is considered completely safe for most people to quit cold turkey, such as smoking, it is only effective when the quitter has appropriate reliable medical support, e.g.

    And yes, that 22% was for the “abrupt cessation” group; the “gradual cessation” group had a success rate of 15.5%. On which note…

    Gradual reduction is the best approach: True or False?

    False based on the above data, in the case of addictions where abrupt cessation is safe. True in other cases where abrupt cessation is not safe.

    Because if you quit abruptly and then die from the withdrawal symptoms, then well, technically you did stay off the substance for the rest of your life, but we can’t really claim that as a success!

    A healthier, but somewhat like-for-like substitution is best: True or False?

    True where such is possible!

    This is why, for example, medical institutions recommend the use of buprenorphine (e.g. Naloxone) in the case of opioid addiction. It’s a partial opioid receptor agonist, meaning it does some of the job of opioids, while being less dangerous:

    SAMSHA.gov | Buprenorphine

    It’s also why vaping—despite itself being a health hazard—is recommended as a method of quitting smoking:

    Vaping: A Lot Of Hot Air?

    Similarly, “zero alcohol drinks that seem like alcohol” are a popular way to stop drinking alcohol, alongside other methods:

    How To Reduce Or Quit Alcohol

    This is also why it’s recommended that if you have multiple addictions, to quit one thing at a time, unless for example multiple doctors are telling you otherwise for some specific-to-your-situation reason.

    Take care!

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