How Likely Are You To Live To 100?

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How much hope can we reasonably have of reaching 100?

Yesterday, we asked you: assuming a good Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL), how much longer do you hope to live?

We got the above-depicted, below-described, set of responses:

  • A little over 38% of respondents hope to live another 11–20 years
  • A little over 31% hope to live another 31–40 years
  • A little over 7% will be content to make it to the next decade
  • One (1) respondent hopes to live longer than an additional 100 years

This is interesting when we put it against our graph of how old our subscribers are:

…because it corresponds inversely, right down to the gap/dent in the 40s. And—we may hypothesize—that one person under 18 who hopes to live to 120, perhaps.

This suggests that optimism remains more or less constant, with just a few wobbles that would probably be un-wobbled with a larger sample size.

In other words: most of our education-minded, health-conscious subscriber-base hope to make it to the age of 90-something, while for the most part feeling that 100+ is overly optimistic.

Writer’s anecdote: once upon a time, I was at a longevity conference in Brussels, and a speaker did a similar survey, but by show of hands. He started low by asking “put your hands up if you want to live at least a few more minutes”. I did so, with an urgency that made him laugh, and say “Don’t worry; I don’t have a gun hidden up here!”

Conjecture aside… What does the science say about our optimism?

First of all, a quick recap…

To not give you the same information twice, let’s note we did an “aging mythbusting” piece already covering:

  • Aging is inevitable: True or False?
  • Aging is, and always will be, unstoppable: True or False?
  • We can slow aging: True or False?
  • It’s too early to worry about… / It’s too late to do anything about… True or False?
  • We can halt aging: True or False?
  • We can reverse aging: True or False?
  • But those aren’t really being younger, we’ll still die when our time is up: True or False?

You can read the answers to all of those here:

Age & Aging: What Can (And Can’t) We Do About It?

Now, onwards…

It is unreasonable to expect to live past 100: True or False?

True or False, depending on your own circumstances.

First, external circumstances: the modal average person in Hong Kong is currently in their 50s and can expect to live into their late 80s, while the modal average person in Gaza is 14 and may not expect to make it to 15 right now.

To avoid extremes, let’s look at the US, where the modal average person is currently in their 30s and can expect to live into their 70s:

United States Mortality Database

Now, before that unduly worries our many readers already in their 70s…

Next, personal circumstances: not just your health, but your socioeconomic standing. And in the US, one of the biggest factors is the kind of health insurance one has:

SOA Research Institute | Life Expectancy Calculator 2021

You may note that the above source puts all groups into a life expectancy in the 80s—whereas the previous source gave 70s.

Why is this? It’s because the SOA, whose primary job is calculating life insurance risks, is working from a sample of people who have, or are applying for, life insurance. So it misses out many people who die younger without such.

New advances in medical technology are helping people to live longer: True or False?

True, assuming access to those. Our subscribers are mostly in North America, and have an economic position that affords good access to healthcare. But beware…

On the one hand:

The number of people who live past the age of 100 has been on the rise for decades

On the other hand:

The average life expectancy in the U.S. has been on the decline for three consecutive years

COVID is, of course, largely to blame for that, though:

❝The decline of 1.8 years in life expectancy was primarily due to increases in mortality from COVID-19 (61.2% of the negative contribution).

The decline in life expectancy would have been even greater if not for the offsetting effects of decreases in mortality due to cancer (43.1%)❞

Source: National Vital Statistics Reports

The US stats are applicable to Canada, the UK, and Australia: True or False?

False: it’s not quite so universal. Differences in healthcare systems will account for a lot, but there are other factors too:

Here’s an interesting (UK-based) tool that calculates not just your life expectancy, but also gives the odds of living to various ages (e.g. this writer was given odds of living to 87, 96, 100).

Check yours here:

Office of National Statistics | Life Expectancy Calculator

To finish on a cheery note…

Data from Italian centenarians suggests a “mortality plateau”:

❝The risk of dying leveled off in people 105 and older, the team reports online today in Science.

That means a 106-year-old has the same probability of living to 107 as a 111-year-old does of living to 112.

Furthermore, when the researchers broke down the data by the subjects’ year of birth, they noticed that over time, more people appear to be reaching age 105.❞

Pop-sci source: Once you hit this age, aging appears to stop

Actual paper: The plateau of human mortality: demography of longevity pioneers

Take care!

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  • Ideal Blood Pressure Numbers Explained

    10almonds is reader-supported. We may, at no cost to you, receive a portion of sales if you purchase a product through a link in this article.

    It’s Q&A Day at 10almonds!

    Have a question or a request? You can always hit “reply” to any of our emails, or use the feedback widget at the bottom!

    In cases where we’ve already covered something, we might link to what we wrote before, but will always be happy to revisit any of our topics again in the future too—there’s always more to say!

    As ever: if the question/request can be answered briefly, we’ll do it here in our Q&A Thursday edition. If not, we’ll make a main feature of it shortly afterwards!

    So, no question/request too big or small

    ❝Maybe I missed it but the study on blood pressure did it say what the 2 numbers should read ideally?❞

    We linked it at the top of the article rather than including it inline, as we were short on space (and there was a chart rather than a “these two numbers” quick answer), but we have a little more space today, so:

    CategorySystolic (mm Hg)Diastolic (mm Hg)
    Normal< 120AND< 80
    Elevated120 – 129AND< 80
    Stage 1 – High Blood Pressure130 – 139OR80 – 89
    Stage 2 – High Blood Pressure140 or higherOR90 or higher
    Hypertensive CrisisAbove 180AND/ORAbove 120

    To oversimplify for a “these two numbers” answer, under 120/80 is generally considered good, unless it is under 90/60, in which case that becomes hypotension.

    Hypotension, the blood pressure being too low, means your organs may not get enough oxygen and if they don’t, they will start shutting down.

    To give you an idea how serious this, this is the closed-circuit equivalent of the hypovolemic shock that occurs when someone is bleeding out onto the floor. Technically, bleeding to death also results in low blood pressure, of course, hence the similarity.

    So: just a little under 120/80 is great.

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  • Languishing – by Prof. Corey Keyes

    10almonds is reader-supported. We may, at no cost to you, receive a portion of sales if you purchase a product through a link in this article.

    We’ve written before about depression and “flourishing” but what about when one isn’t exactly flourishing, but is not necessarily in the depths of depression either? That’s what this book is about.

    Prof. Keyes offers, from his extensive research, hope for those who do not check enough of the boxes to be considered depressed, but who are also definitely more in the lane of “surviving” than “thriving”.

    Specifically, he outlines five key ways to make the step from languishing to flourishing, based not on motivational rhetoric, but actual data-based science:

    1. Learn (creating your personal story of self-growth)
    2. Connect (building relationships, on the individual level and especially on the community level)
    3. Transcend (developing psychological resilience to the unexpected)
    4. Help (others! This is about finding your purpose, and then actively living it)
    5. Play (this is a necessary “recharge” element that many people miss, especially as we get older)

    With regard to finding one’s purpose being given the one-word summary of “help”, this is a callback to our tribal origins, and how we thrive and flourish best and feel happiest when we have a role to fulfil and provide value to those around us)

    Bottom line: if you’re not at the point of struggling to get out of bed each day, but you’re also not exactly leaping out of bed with a smile, this book can help get you from one place to the other.

    Click here to check out Languishing, and flourish instead!

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  • The Gym For Your Mental Health

    10almonds is reader-supported. We may, at no cost to you, receive a portion of sales if you purchase a product through a link in this article.

    Getting The Most Out Of Therapy

    If you’ve never had therapy, what image do you have of it? Perhaps you imagine a bearded and bespectacled man in a suit, impassively making notes on a clipboard. Perhaps you imagine an empathetic woman, with tissues and camomile tea on standby.

    The reality is: the experience of therapy can vary, a lot.

    In its results, too! Sometimes we may try therapy and think “well that was a waste of time and money”. Sometimes we may try therapy and it’ll change our life.

    So… Is there any way to make it less of a lottery?

    First: knowledge is power

    And while the therapist-client relationship certainly shouldn’t be a power struggle, you do want to be empowered.

    So, read about different styles of therapy, and also, read some how-to guides for self-therapy. We’ve recommended some before in previous editions of 10almonds; you can check those books out here:

    This will serve two purposes:

    • You’ll know what to expect out of a therapist
    • You can more efficiently “get to work” in therapy

    It also, of course, could help you already, without even going to therapy!

    Second: begin with the end in mind

    A person who does not know what they want to get out of therapy, will likely not get much out of therapy. Or rather, their first task will be to figure that out. So, figure it out in advance, if you can.

    Maybe you have a problem that has a specific name, for example poor self-esteem, anxiety, stress, depression, trauma, neuroticism, phobia, etc.

    This isn’t Alcoholics Anonymous, and in this case you don’t want a lifetime of “Hello, my name is ______ and I have ______”, if you can help it.

    So, what do you want?

    • Maybe you want to be able to go to social events without feeling anxious
    • Maybe you want your relationship(s) to be more secure and fulfilling
    • Maybe you want to no longer have nightmares about that traumatic thing
    • Maybe you want to be able to greet each day’s tasks with confidence and without overwhelm

    …etc.

    A good therapist will help you to set such goals (if you haven’t already), and attain them.

    If you’re going the self-therapy route, then this is your job now!

    It will probably start with the question: imagine that everything currently troubling you is now healed.

    What would that look like, to you?

    Third: get a good match for you

    Unless you are going entirely the self-therapy route (which can work for some), you will want a therapist who’s a good match for you.

    It may take a degree of “suck it and see” trial runs before you find the right one, but that takes time and money, so you’ll want to streamline the process as much as you can. If you do this well, you may be able to find a good therapist for you first time.

    For this, personal recommendations (such as from friends) may help more than exmaining academic and institutional affiliations.

    Yes, you want a well-qualified therapist who is a member in good standing of a respectable regulated body… but whether your therapist is easy for you to “get on with” will matter at least as much as whether their approach is psychodynamic, or 4th wave CBT, or IFS, or whatever seems popular in your time and place.

    Bear in mind:

    • Some therapists are specialized in helping with some kinds of things and not others. It will obviously help if the therapist you choose is specialized in the thing you are seeking help for.
    • Some therapists may be able to relate to you better (or not), based on simple factors of who they are. To this end, while your therapist certainly doesn’t have to be a mirror image of you, factors like age, gender, race, etc can be relevant and may be worth considering, depending on what you are seeking help with, and what factors impact that thing.

    Prefer keeping things to yourself?

    Therapy isn’t for everyone, but having a good relationship with oneself definitely is. You might want to invest in one of the books whose reviews we linked above, and you might also get value from previous Psychology Sunday articles, which you can find in our archive (every seventh edition here has a Psychology Sunday main feature):

    Click Here To Check Out The 10almonds Archive

    To borrow the catchphrase of Dr. Kirk Honda (a therapist and therapy educator with decades of experience):

    ❝Take care of yourself, because you deserve it; you really, really do.❞

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  • You, Happier – by Dr. Daniel Amen

    10almonds is reader-supported. We may, at no cost to you, receive a portion of sales if you purchase a product through a link in this article.

    The implicit question “what’s your brain type?” makes this book sound a little like a horoscope for science-enjoyers, but really, the “brain type” in question is simply a way of expressing which neurochemicals one’s brain makes most and/or least easily.

    That’s something that a) really does differ from one person to another b) isn’t necessarily fixed forever, but will tend to remain mostly the same most of the time for most people.

    And yes, the book does cover figuring out which neurotransmitter(s) it might be for you. On a secondary level, it also talks about more/less active parts of the brain for each of us, but the primary focus is on neurotransmitters.

    It’s easy to assume “everyone wants more [your favorite neurotransmitter here]” but in fact, most people most of the time have most of what they need.

    For those of us who don’t, those of us who perhaps have to work more to keep our level(s) of one or more neurotransmitters where they should be, this book is a great guide to optimizing aspects of our diet and lifestyle to compensate for what our brains might lack—potentially reducing the need to go for pharmaceutical approaches.

    The style of the book is very much pop-science, but it is all well-informed and well-referenced.

    Bottom line: if you sometimes (or often!) think “if only my brain would just make/acknowledge more [neurotransmitter], this book is for you.

    Click here to check out You, Happier, and discover a happier you!

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  • Rainbow Roasted Potato Salad

    10almonds is reader-supported. We may, at no cost to you, receive a portion of sales if you purchase a product through a link in this article.

    This salad has potatoes in it, but it’s not a potato salad as most people know it. The potatoes are roasted, but in a non-oily-dressing, that nevertheless leaves them with an amazing texture—healthy and delicious; the best of both worlds. And the rest? We’ve got colorful vegetables, we’ve got protein, we’ve got seasonings full of healthy spices, and more.

    You will need

    • 1½ lbs new potatoes (or any waxy potatoes; sweet potato is also a great option; don’t peel them, whichever you choose) cut into 1″ chunks
    • 1 can / 1 cup cooked cannellini beans (or your preferred salad beans)
    • 1 carrot, grated
    • 2 celery stalks, finely chopped
    • 3 spring onions, finely chopped
    • ½ small red onion, finely sliced
    • 2 tbsp white wine vinegar
    • 1 tbsp balsamic vinegar
    • 1 tbsp lemon juice
    • 1 tbsp nutritional yeast
    • 1 tsp garlic powder
    • 1 tsp black pepper
    • ½ tsp red chili powder
    • We didn’t forget salt; it’s just that with the natural sodium content of the potatoes plus the savory flavor-enhancing properties of the nutritional yeast, it’s really not needed here. Add if you feel strongly about it, opting for low-sodium salt, or MSG (which has even less sodium).
    • To serve: 1 cup basil pesto (we’ll do a recipe one of these days; meanwhile, store-bought is fine, or you can use the chermoula we made the other day, ignoring the rest of that day’s recipe and just making the chermoula component)

    Method

    (we suggest you read everything at least once before doing anything)

    1) Preheat the oven as hot as it goes!

    2) Combine the potatoes, white wine vinegar, nutritional yeast, garlic powder, black pepper, and red chili powder, mixing thoroughly (but gently!) to coat.

    3) Spread the potatoes on a baking tray, and roast in the middle of the oven (for best evenness of cooking); because of the small size of the potato chunks, this should only take about 25 minutes (±5mins depending on your oven); it’s good to turn them halfway through, or at least jiggle them if you don’t want to do all that turning.

    4) Allow to cool while still on the baking tray (this allows the steam to escape immediately, rather than the steam steaming the other potatoes, as it would if you put them in a bowl).

    5) Now put them in a serving bowl, and mix in the beans, vegetables, balsamic vinegar, and lemon juice, mixing thoroughly but gently

    6) Add generous lashings of the pesto to serve; it should be gently mixed a little too, so that it’s not all on top.

    Enjoy!

    Want to learn more?

    For those interested in some of the science of what we have going on today:

    Take care!

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  • Parents are increasingly saying their child is ‘dysregulated’. What does that actually mean?

    10almonds is reader-supported. We may, at no cost to you, receive a portion of sales if you purchase a product through a link in this article.

    Welcome aboard the roller coaster of parenthood, where emotions run wild, tantrums reign supreme and love flows deep.

    As children reach toddlerhood and beyond, parents adapt to manage their child’s big emotions and meltdowns. Parenting terminology has adapted too, with more parents describing their child as “dysregulated”.

    But what does this actually mean?

    ShUStudio/Shutterstock

    More than an emotion

    Emotional dysregulation refers to challenges a child faces in recognising and expressing emotions, and managing emotional reactions in social settings.

    This may involve either suppressing emotions or displaying exaggerated and intense emotional responses that get in the way of the child doing what they want or need to do.

    Dysregulation” is more than just feeling an emotion. An emotion is a signal, or cue, that can give us important insights to ourselves and our preferences, desires and goals.

    An emotionally dysregulated brain is overwhelmed and overloaded (often, with distressing emotions like frustration, disappointment and fear) and is ready to fight, flight or freeze.

    Developing emotional regulation

    Emotion regulation is a skill that develops across childhood and is influenced by factors such as the child’s temperament and the emotional environment in which they are raised.

    In the stage of emotional development where emotion regulation is a primary goal (around 3–5 years old), children begin exploring their surroundings and asserting their desires more actively.

    Child sits next to her parent's bed
    A child’s temperament and upbringing affect how they regulate emotions. bluedog studio/Shutterstock

    It’s typical for them to experience emotional dysregulation when their initiatives are thwarted or criticised, leading to occasional tantrums or outbursts.

    A typically developing child will see these types of outbursts reduce as their cognitive abilities become more sophisticated, usually around the age they start school.

    Express, don’t suppress

    Expressing emotions in childhood is crucial for social and emotional development. It involves the ability to convey feelings verbally and through facial expressions and body language.

    When children struggle with emotional expression, it can manifest in various ways, such as difficulty in being understood, flat facial expressions even in emotionally charged situations, challenges in forming close relationships, and indecisiveness.

    Several factors, including anxiety, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), autism, giftedness, rigidity and both mild and significant trauma experiences, can contribute to these issues.

    Common mistakes parents can make is dismissing emotions, or distracting children away from how they feel.

    These strategies don’t work and increase feelings of overwhelm. In the long term, they fail to equip children with the skills to identify, express and communicate their emotions, making them vulnerable to future emotional difficulties.

    We need to help children move compassionately towards their difficulties, rather than away from them. Parents need to do this for themselves too.

    Caregiving and skill modelling

    Parents are responsible for creating an emotional climate that facilitates the development of emotion regulation skills.

    Parents’ own modelling of emotion regulation when they feel distressed. The way they respond to the expression of emotions in their children, contributes to how children understand and regulate their own emotions.

    Children are hardwired to be attuned to their caregivers’ emotions, moods, and coping as this is integral to their survival. In fact, their biggest threat to a child is their caregiver not being OK.

    Unsafe, unpredictable, or chaotic home environments rarely give children exposure to healthy emotion expression and regulation. Children who go through maltreatment have a harder time controlling their emotions, needing more brainpower for tasks that involve managing feelings. This struggle could lead to more problems with emotions later on, like feeling anxious and hypervigilant to potential threats.

    Recognising and addressing these challenges early on is essential for supporting children’s emotional wellbeing and development.

    A dysregulated brain and body

    When kids enter “fight or flight” mode, they often struggle to cope or listen to reason. When children experience acute stress, they may respond instinctively without pausing to consider strategies or logic.

    If your child is in fight mode, you might observe behaviours such as crying , clenching fists or jaw, kicking, punching, biting, swearing, spitting or screaming.

    In flight mode, they may appear restless, have darting eyes, exhibit excessive fidgeting, breathe rapidly, or try to run away.

    A shut-down response may look like fainting or a panic attack.

    When a child feels threatened, their brain’s frontal lobe, responsible for rational thinking and problem-solving, essentially goes offline.

    The amygdala, shown here in red, triggers survival mode. pikovit/Shutterstock

    This happens when the amygdala, the brain’s alarm system, sends out a false alarm, triggering the survival instinct.

    In this state, a child may not be able to access higher functions like reasoning or decision-making.

    While our instinct might be to immediately fix the problem, staying present with our child during these moments is more effective. It’s about providing support and understanding until they feel safe enough to engage their higher brain functions again.

    Reframe your thinking so you see your child as having a problem – not being the problem.

    Tips for parents

    Take turns discussing the highs and lows of the day at meal times. This is a chance for you to be curious, acknowledge and label feelings, and model that you, too, experience a range of emotions that require you to put into practice skills to cope and has shown evidence in numerous physical, social-emotional, academic and behavioural benefits.

    Family dinner
    Talk about your day over dinner. Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock

    Spending even small amounts (five minutes a day!) of quality one-on-one time with your child is an investment in your child’s emotional wellbeing. Let them pick the activity, do your best to follow their lead, and try to notice and comment on the things they do well, like creative ideas, persevering when things are difficult, and being gentle or kind.

    Take a tip from parents of children with neurodiversity: learn about your unique child. Approaching your child’s emotions, temperament, and behaviours with curiosity can help you to help them develop emotion regulation skills.

    When to get help

    If emotion dysregulation is a persistent issue that is getting in the way of your child feeling happy, calm, or confident – or interfering with learning or important relationships with family members or peers – talk to their GP about engaging with a mental health professional.

    Many families have found parenting programs helpful in creating a climate where emotions can be safely expressed and shared.

    Remember, you can’t pour from an empty cup. Parenting requires you to be your best self and tend to your needs first to see your child flourish.

    Cher McGillivray, Assistant Professor Psychology Department, Bond University and Shawna Mastro Campbell, Assistant Professor Psychology, Bond University

    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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